主题：【文摘】一道有趣的概率题 -- 天下第一银杏树
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2、原来没有选中汽车，则重新选后，选中汽车概率：2/3 * 1/2 =1/3
If you picked a goat, then the other two doors have to be a goat and a car. The host would ALWAYS show you a goat, and therefore the only remaining door has got to be a car. Thus, if you switch, you are guaranteed to pick the car. Therefore, in this case, the 概率 equals 2/3 * 1 = 2/3, rather than 1/3.
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American Statistician有一篇文章专门讨论这个问题 1 Dracula 字141 2005-08-06 01:23:56
高人啊！您是Stanford统计系的吧？：） 天下第一银杏树 字0 2005-08-06 02:40:46
无所谓，几率是一样的 冷眼旁观 字226 2005-08-05 16:37:38
I disagree
不同意你，也不同意冷眼旁观 1 林小筑 字779 2005-08-05 19:33:11
disagree again 2 衲子 字1267 2005-08-05 20:46:30
I actually did manually list all cases. May I see your code pls? 林小筑 字0 2005-08-05 21:49:45
my annotated MATLAB code. How about ur manual list? 1 衲子 字1144 2005-08-05 23:17:31